St Louis Mortgage Blog

St Louis Home Mortgage and Refinancing News -

News:  About half of homeowners to have negative equity by 2011

Analysts at Deutsche Bank say that the number of homeowners whose home value is less than what they owe on mortgage loans will double to 48% by 2011; currently 26% of homeowners have negative home equity.

"We project the next phase of the housing decline will have a far greater impact on prime borrowers," said Karen Weaver and Ying Shen, analysts at Deutsche Bank.

Among prime loans - which conform to underwriting and size guidelines of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - about 41% will be "underwater" by the first quarter of 2011 from 6% at the end of the first quarter of 2009.

As for prime Jumbo loans, about 26% will be underwater by 2011. "The impact of this is significant given that these markets have the largest share of the total mortgage market outstanding," said the Deutsche Bank analysts.

Among subprime loans, 61% will be underwater by 2011. The drop in home prices is leading to negative home equity and incentivizing borrowers to walk away from their mortgage commitments.

In regions such as Las Vegas and parts of Florida and California about 90% of homeowners are likely to see negative home equity by 2011. "For many, the home has morphed from piggy bank to albatross," the analysts said.

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